Assessment and Prediction of the Demand for Long-term Care for the Ederly in China


Assessment and Prediction of the Demand for Long-term Care for the Elderly in China


Gui Xiao-min1, Cao Yang2*

1female (1995-), master of social and management, China pharmaceutical university, majoring in medical and health policy, long-term care insurance.
2female(1966-), Ph.D., professor, school of international medicine business, China pharmaceutical university, research interests: medicine industry economics and policy.


Global Journal of Nursing

Objective: To explore the demand of long-term care in China.

Methods: First, based on the data collected from multiple channels, the number of disabled elderly in China and the long-term care demand were predicted by the macro simulation demand model and markovdo state transition model. The second is to compare and analyze the implementation plan of the long-term care insurance system in China’s pilot areas, discuss the existing problems, and put forward Suggestions.

Results: From 2020 to 2050, the number of disabled elders in China will rise from 33813 700 to 60 535 700, and the total long-term care costs will rise from 6.73 billion yuan to 29.12 billion yuan.

Conclusion: In the future, China should build a multi-level long-term care guarantee system, actively explore the long-term care insurance system, and improve the long-term care service supply system.


Keywords: Disabled elderly; long-term care; Demand

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How to cite this article:
Gui Xiao-min, Cao Yang. Assessment and Prediction of the Demand for Long-term Care for the Elderly in China. Global Journal of Nursing, 2020; 3:11. DOI: 10.28933/gjn-2020-02-0105


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